MSCCES 2016 Abstracts


Short Papers
Paper Nr: 1
Title:

FACTS: Fuzzy Assessment and Control for Temperature Stabilization - Regulating Global Carbon Emissions with a Fuzzy Approach to Climate Projections

Authors:

Bernardo A. Bastien Olvera and Carlos Gay y García

Abstract: This work presents a new approach for assessing the climate system and for stabilizing the temperature and other climate parameters. FACTS, as we call it, is a fuzzy inference system that overview certain climate state, and is able to generate the CO2 emissions reduction needed to implement in order to stabilize the temperature. FACTS was constructed using a neural network optimization process along with data generated by a classical emissions pathfinder. Then, it was embedded in MAGICC6, a simple climate model that was forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways until and ultimately stabilized by the proposed methodology.

Paper Nr: 2
Title:

The Importance of Increasing Actual INDCs’ Ambitions to Meet The Paris Agreement Temperature Targets - An Innovative Fuzzy Logic Approach to Temperature Control and Climate Assessment using FACTS

Authors:

Carlos Gay y García and Bernardo A. Bastien Olvera

Abstract: This work presents an alternative assessment of climate projections using FACTS (Bastien and Gay, 2016), based on possible future emissions pathways related to the Intended National Determined Contributions presented in 2015 as part of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Moreover it proposes emission reductions in order to stabilize the climate to the desired levels proposed by the international community. Ultimately, it shows the importance of the emissions pathways that the world could take in the crucial period of time 2020-2030. FACTS uses a fuzzy logic approach to solve this physical problem, aware of it dependence on the complexity of climate diplomacy.

Paper Nr: 4
Title:

Agent based Modeling Simulation for Land Use Change and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Land Management Policies

Authors:

Armando Sánchez Vargas, Carlos Gay Garcia, Debora Martínez Ventura, Ana Liz Herrera Merino and Bernardo A. Bastien Olvera

Abstract: This study shows the Simulation of an Agent Based Model for Land Use Change (SIMBACUS) developed on the Netlogo platform (Wilensky, 1999) for the period of 2010-2030. The model studies the interaction of individual behavior with environmental characteristics considering socioeconomic, demographic, climate and public policy aspects of Pachuca de Soto (Hidalgo). The simulation’s dynamism is based on population growth and the Cobb-Douglas utility function, which determines the optimal decisions of individuals. The results indicate that in 2030 the municipality would have 303,773 inhabitants, the urban area would grow to 21 km2 and the implementation of a land management program would have a positive impact on social welfare and the permanence of natural resources.

Paper Nr: 5
Title:

A Proposal for Climate Change Resilience Management through Fuzzy Controllers

Authors:

J. Rubén G. Cárdenas, Àngela Nebot and Francisco Mugica

Abstract: We aim towards the implementation of a set of fuzzy controllers capable to perform automated estimation of the period of time necessary to recover a resilience level through the non-linear influence of a set of interrelated climate change resilience indicators constrained by social-based variables. This fuzzy controller set, working together with a fuzzy inference system type Mamdani, will be capable to estimate the proper adjustments to be done onto system’s elements in order to achieve a certain resilience level, while a general estimation of required costs is appraised. The final tool can then be used to provide guidelines for strategic vulnerability planning and monitoring through a clear understanding between investments and results, while an open evaluation and scrutiny of applied policies is made. In this paper the main strategy to achieve the mentioned objectives is presented and discussed.