SIMULTECH 2015 Abstracts


Area 1 - Simulation Tools and Platforms

Full Papers
Paper Nr: 7
Title:

Experimental/FEM Optimization of Medium Voltage Rubber Insulated Electric Cables Vulcanized with Steam Water - Numerical Simulations and Inverse Analyses

Authors:

Gabriele Milani and Federico Milani

Abstract: A comprehensive combined numerical model based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization and heat transfer Finite Element computations is presented. The numerical analyses are carried out to evaluate the final crosslinking degree of a medium voltage electric cable subjected to industrial peroxide reticulation. The final task is to minimize the difference between numerically predicted and experimentally determined crosslinking degree along the thickness of the insulator, when a variable steam temperature profile along the pipe length is assumed to explain the unexpected under-vulcanization of the cable in the internal layers. To minimize the gap between experimentally determined curing degree and numerical predictions, a Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization is used.

Paper Nr: 39
Title:

Simulation based Evaluation of a Code Diversification Strategy

Authors:

Brady Tello, Michael Winterrose, George Baah and Michael Zhivich

Abstract: Periodic randomization of a computer program’s binary code is an attractive technique for defending against several classes of advanced threats. In this paper we describe a model of attacker-defender interaction in which the defender employs such a technique against an attacker who is actively constructing an exploit using Return Oriented Programming (ROP). In order to successfully build a working exploit, the attacker must guess the locations of several small chunks of program code (i.e., gadgets) in the defended program’s memory space. As the attacker continually guesses, the defender periodically rotates to a newly randomized variant of the program, effectively negating any gains the attacker made since the last rotation. Although randomization makes the attacker’s task more difficult, it also incurs a cost to the defender. As such, the defender’s goal is to find an acceptable balance between utility degradation (cost) and security (benefit). One way to measure these two competing factors is the total task latency introduced by both the attacker and any defensive measures taken to thwart him. We simulated a number of diversity strategies under various threat scenarios and present the measured impact on the defender’s task.

Paper Nr: 58
Title:

Discrete Event Modeling and Simulation for IoT Efficient Design Combining WComp and DEVSimPy Framework

Authors:

S. Sehili, L. Capocchi, J. F. Santucci, S. Lavirotte and J. Y. Tigli

Abstract: One of today’s challenges in the framework of ubiquitous computing concerns the design of ambient systems including sensors, smart-phones, interconnected objects, computers, etc. The major difficulty is to propose a compositional adaptation which aims to integrate new features that were not foreseen in the design, remove or exchange entities that are no longer available in a given context. In order to provide help to overcome this difficulty, a new approach based on the definition of strategies validated using discrete-event simulation is proposed. Such strategies make it possible to take into account conflicts and compositional adaptation of components in ambient systems. These are defined and validate using a discrete-event formalism to be integrated into a prototyping and dynamic execution environment for ambient intelligence applications. The proposed solution allows the designers of ambient systems to define the optimum matching of all components to each other. One pedagogical example is presented (switch-lamp system) as a proof of the proposed approach.

Short Papers
Paper Nr: 6
Title:

Experimental/FEM Optimization of Medium Voltage Rubber Insulated Electric Cables Vulcanized with Steam Water - Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Rheometer Experimental Results

Authors:

Gabriele Milani and Federico Milani

Abstract: The standard industrial process to produce medium voltage electric cables based on EPDM consists of crosslinking by peroxides with high temperature steam (pressurized water vapor). Suboptimal material crosslinking is usually due to a decrease of the temperature along the vulcanization pipe. Temperature variations are connected to variations in steam pressure into pipe system. In the present paper a combined numerical and experimental approach to optimize the production process of medium voltage rubber insulated electric cables vulcanized with steam water is presented. The numerical part, discussed in an accompanying paper, is based on the utilization of Finite Elements and an optimization Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach. Here, attention is focused on the experimental investigation. In particular, the final crosslinking degree is experimentally obtained by means of a DSC determination of non-decomposed peroxide from the external layer to the core of the cable insulation. The final task is to minimize the difference between numerically predicted and experimentally determined crosslinking degree using a steam temperature profile along the pipe to explain the variations. A preliminary evaluation of kinetic reaction constants of rubber cured with peroxides is here provided by means of a previously presented kinetic model.

Paper Nr: 18
Title:

Statistical Model Checking of GSPN Models

Authors:

Franco Cicirelli, Christian Nigro and Libero Nigro

Abstract: Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) are a well-known timed extension of Petri nets suited for modelling and performance analysis of general time-dependent concurrent systems. The work described in this paper develops an original structural translation of GSPN models onto UPPAAL SMC so as to enable property estimation through statistical model checking. The actual GSPN supported formal language admits, in general, tagged tokens carrying timestamps, queuing places, normal, transport and inhibitor arcs and timed and untimed transitions. This paper describes the proposed approach and demonstrates its practical usefulness through a case study.

Paper Nr: 36
Title:

Computationally Efficient Multiphase Heuristics for Simulation-based Optimization

Authors:

Christoph Bodenstein, Thomas Dietrich and Armin Zimmermann

Abstract: Stochastic colored Petri nets are an established model for the specification and quantitative evaluation of complex systems. Automated design-space optimization for such models can help in the design phase to find good variants and parameter settings. However, since only indirect heuristic optimization based on simulation is usually possible, and the design space may be huge, the computational effort of such an algorithm is often prohibitively high. This paper extends earlier work on accuracy-adaptive simulation to speed up the overall optimization task. A local optimization heuristic in a “divide-and-conquer” approach is combined with varying simulation accuracy to save CPU time when the response surface contains local optima. An application example is analyzed with our recently implemented software tool to validate the advantages of the approach.

Paper Nr: 38
Title:

Challenges when Creating Variable-structure Models

Authors:

Alexandra Mehlhase, Daniel Gomez Esperon and Thomas Karbe

Abstract: Variable-structure models can switch their system of equations during a simulation, allowing for a change of level of detail or behavior. The need for this kind of models has been well-established, and there are simulation environments that can handle them. While most research papers on this topic focus on language and tool issues regarding variable-structure models, in this paper, we will shed some light on the pragmatics of actually creating such a model in a reusable way. During the construction of a variable-structure model, the modeler will face several challenges, such as the initialization of new modes during mode switches. We will collect and discuss the most important challenges and, if possible, provide rules of thumb on how to handle these challenges appropriately.

Paper Nr: 40
Title:

Optimizing Steel Melt Shop Operations using an Iterative Hierarchical Decomposition based Discrete Event Simulation Model

Authors:

Atanu Mukherjee and Arnab Adak

Abstract: Maximizing productivity in a steel melt shop requires appropriate equipment and facility design and the synchronization of production across units like iron making, steel making, holding furnaces and casting of the molten metal. This requires that blockages and bottlenecks in the production chain be identified and overcome and the logistics in terms of equipment and facilities to move the materials appropriately designed. Removal of blockages and bottlenecks requires a combination of process redesign and investments in facilities and equipment in the production units supported by potential logistics redesign in terms routing and scheduling of equipments like cranes, ladle cars hot metal ladles and steel ladles used in the production shop . This approach addresses the system-wide bottleneck removal problem such that congestions, interferences, delays, stoppages and idle times coupled with process and cycle time variations; do not limit the end-to-end production. This paper presents how we improved the productivity in a melt-shop by using an iterative hierarchical decomposition based modelling and simulation approach to help identify the bottlenecks causing capacity loss, and experiment with options to redesign the system by suggesting mechanisms for improvement and additional facilities and logistical resources. The implementation of the system has resulted in a 28% increase in melt-shop throughput and increase and significant increase in profitability by decreasing hot metal diversions to alternative casting facilities.

Paper Nr: 50
Title:

Evolving Close-to-Real Digital Microstructures in Polycrystalline Materials - A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

Authors:

K. R. Phaneesh, Anirudh Bhat, G. Mukherjee and K. T. Kashyap

Abstract: For more than three decades now simulation of recrystallization and grain growth phenomena in annealed metals have been studied through a variety of computer modeling techniques including that of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. In this study, we have been able to show the efficiency of the MC technique by evolving simulated microstructures comparable very closely to real microstructures. The real microstructures were generated in about a 50% cold-worked alloy of Al-4% Cu (Duralumin) annealed to various degrees. The digital microstructures were evolved through a 2D simulation of a square lattice using Potts model Monte Carlo simulation technique based on the Metropolis algorithm. Through our work we have been able to show the close similarity between microstructures of real metals and microstructures digitally evolved through simulation, perhaps for the first time, thereby validating the MC technique as an efficient computer simulation tool for grain growth studies.

Paper Nr: 51
Title:

Implementing an Agent-based Model with a Spatial Visual Display in Discrete-event Simulation Software

Authors:

Andrew Greasley and Chris Owen

Abstract: There has been an increasing interest in the use of agent-based simulation and some discussion of the relative merits of this approach as compared to discrete-event simulation. There are differing views on whether an agent-based simulation offers capabilities that discrete-event cannot provide or whether all agent-based applications can at least in theory be undertaken using a discrete-event approach. This paper presents a simple agent-based NetLogo model and corresponding discrete-event versions implemented in the widely used ARENA software. The two versions of the discrete-event model presented use a traditional process flow approach normally adopted in discrete-event simulation software and also an agent-based approach to the model build. In addition a real-time spatial visual display facility is provided using a spreadsheet platform controlled by VBA code embedded within the ARENA model. Initial findings from this investigation are that discrete-event simulation can indeed be used to implement agent-based models and with suitable integration elements such as VBA provide the spatial displays associated with agent-based software.

Paper Nr: 52
Title:

Distributed Discrete Event Simulation Architecture with Connectors

Authors:

Ismet Özgür Çolpankan, Ahmet Kara and Halit Oguztüzün

Abstract: Distributed Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) environments are developed with various computing, networking and implementation language options. We propose a distributed approach to the Simulation Modeling Architecture (SiMA), a DEVS-based modeling and simulation framework, with software connectors. We employWindows Communication Foundation (WCF) as the middleware technology. A connector is a first class entity which performs interaction among components, thus, plays an important role in a component-based architecture. We claim that using a connector instead of modifying an already developed model increases the model reusability. We also compare this approach with the existing distributed DEVS approaches in terms of base formalism, network layer technology, model partitioning, remote node synchronization scheme and message exchange pattern.

Paper Nr: 54
Title:

Using Multiple Runs in the Simulation of Stochastic Systems for Estimating Equilibrium Expectations

Authors:

Winfried Grassmann

Abstract: In complex stochastic systems, Monte-Carlo simulation is often the only way to estimate equilibrium expectations. The question then arises what is better: a single run of length T, or n runs, each of length T/n. In this paper, it is argued that if there is a good state to start the simulation in, multiple runs may be advantageous. To illustrate this, we use numerical examples. These examples are obtained by using deterministic methods, that is, methods based on probability theory not using Monte-Carlo methods. The results of our numerical calculations forced us to make a sharp distinction between the time to reach equilibrium and the appropriate length of the warm-up period, and this distinguishes our study from earlier investigations.

Paper Nr: 59
Title:

A Multistage Approach for Buffer Size Decision in Serial Production Line

Authors:

Jaber Abu Qudeiri, Muneer Khan Mohammed, Syed Hammad Mian and Fayiz Abu Khadra

Abstract: Buffer allocation has been very important to design an efficient manufacturing system. An optimum buffer allocation helps to reduce idle time for machine tools, thus improves overall throughput for the system. In this work, an optimization model aiming at improving throughput for a serial production Line (SPL) has been introduced. This model primarily comprises of three basic steps: developing an initial solution, predicting buffer sizes for different machine tools and finally optimizing the overall system using meta-heuristic approach. The proposed methodology commences with determining a set of buffer sizes and respective throughput using ARENA® software. This will generate a set of initial solution for further, predicting buffer sizes and their throughputs using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Then, Genetic Algorithm (GA) will be applied to optimize the buffer sizes of different machine tools to achieve efficient manufacturing system. The output solutions from previous stage would be used as input to this final step of GA implementation.

Paper Nr: 61
Title:

Adaptive Solution of the Wave Equation

Authors:

Václav Valenta, Gabriela Necasová, Jirí Kunovský, Václav Šátek and Filip Kocina

Abstract: The paper focuses on the adaptive solution of two-dimensional wave equation using an adaptive triangulation update based on a posteriori error estimation. The a posteriori error estimation is based on the Gradient super-approximation method which is based on works of J. Dalík et al that is briefly explained. The Modern Taylor Series Method (MTSM) used for solving a set of ordinary differential equations is also explained. The MTSM adapts to the required accuracy by using a variable number of Taylor Series terms. It possible to use the MTSM to solve wave equation in conjunction with Finite Difference Method (FDM).

Paper Nr: 63
Title:

Numerical Integration of Multiple Integrals using Taylor Polynomial

Authors:

Jan Chaloupka, Jiří Kunovský, Václav Šátek, Petr Veigend and Alžbeta Martinkovičová

Abstract: The paper concentrates on a new method of numerical computation of multiple integrals. Equations based on Taylor polynomial are derived. Multiple integral of a continuous function of n-variables is numerically integrated step by step by reducing its dimension. First, integration formulas for a function of two variables are derived. Formulas for function of n-variables are generalized using composition. Numerical derivatives for Taylor terms are repeatedly computed from simple integrals. Finally method is demonstrated on an exponential function of two-variables and a new approach to determine a number of Taylor terms is discussed.

Paper Nr: 81
Title:

Global Optimization with Gaussian Regression Under the Finite Number of Evaluation

Authors:

Naoya Takimoto and Hiroshi Morita

Abstract: Computer experiments are black-box functions that are expensive to evaluate. One solution to expensive black-box optimization is Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes. This approach is popularly used in this challenge, and it is efficient when the number of evaluations is limited by cost and time constraints, which is generally true in practice. This paper discusses an optimization method with two acquisition functions. Our new method improves the efficiency of global optimization when the number of evaluations is strictly limited.

Paper Nr: 85
Title:

Simulation of Stochastic Activity Networks

Authors:

Bajis M. Dodin and Abdelghani A. Elimam

Abstract: Stochastic Activity Networks (SANs) are used in modeling and managing projects that are characterized by uncertainty. SANs are primarily managed using Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS). The accuracy of the results obtained from MCS depends on the sample size. So far the required sample size has been determined arbitrarily and independent of the characteristics of the SAN such as the number of activities and their underlying distributions, number of paths, and the structure of the SAN. In this paper we show that the accuracy of the SANs simulation results would depend on the sample size. Contrary to existing practices, we show that such sample size must reflect the project size and structure, as well as the number of activities. We propose an optimization-based approach to determine the project variance, which in turn is used to determine the number of replications in SAN simulations.

Paper Nr: 100
Title:

Simulation and Analysis of the Signal Transmission in the Optical Transmission Medium

Authors:

Rastislav Róka and Filip Čertík

Abstract: This paper presents a possible way for simulating a signal transmission in the optical transmission medium. A main attention is focused on characteristics and analysis of linear and nonlinear effects that influence optical signals transmitting in the environment of optical fibers. Simultaneously, functional blocks created in the Matlab Simulink programming environment for particular effects are presented in the proposed simulation model. At the same time, the paper present a simulation of the optical transmission system that can include various modulation and encoding techniques utilized for the signal transmission. In addition, a comparison of results from the proposed simulation model with measurements on real optical transmission paths is introduced.

Posters
Paper Nr: 4
Title:

Integrated Operations Planning for a Multicomponent Machine Subjected to Stochastic Environment

Authors:

Jean-Baptiste Ringard, Bhushan S. Purohit and Bhupesh Kumar Lad

Abstract: Operations management decisions related to production, maintenance, inventory and supplier selection has attracted researchers since long. Traditionally each of these areas was planned and optimized individually. Soon interdependencies between these elements of value chain were realized, which prompted researchers towards integrated planning of these functions. Superiority of integrated approach over conventional operations management approaches has already been demonstrated in past. Therefore, models integrating shop floor functions like production planning, maintenance planning and inventory planning are abundant in recent literature. However, there exist functions which significantly contribute towards operations planning, but have still not been considered for integration. One such important area is procurement planning (supplier order allocation).Current work aims to integrate procurement decisions with maintenance and production plan so as to minimize Total Cost of Operations (TCO). It considers a stochastic environment where production and maintenance processes are imperfect and where there is significant dubiety related to demand and supply of material. Further, present model considers uncertainties in parameters like supplier quality, machine yield etc., by using appropriate probability distributions for these parameters. Therefore a simulation based Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach is used to solve this optimization problem. The final results are illustrated in the form of an integrated operations plan. It explicitly communicates (i) Order quantity for individual suppliers (ii) Job production sequence (iii) Production lot size (iv) Preventive maintenance schedule for individual machine components. Current work aims to contribute towards development of a paradigm where multiple disjoint functions are integrated at planning level itself.

Paper Nr: 23
Title:

SIM - A Flexible, Scalable and Expandable Simulation Platform Applying to Lunar Orbit Rendezvous Mission

Authors:

Sun Fuyu, Wang Hua, Guo Shuai and Li Haiyang

Abstract: In this paper we propose a new simulation platform called SIM, for analyzing parallel and distributed systems. This platform aims to test parallel and distributed architectures and applications. The main characteristics of SIM are flexibility, scalability and expandability. SIM is about five functions: model management, experiment management, distribution management, operation management and node management. To improve the efficiency of project development, new models are designed for lunar orbit rendezvous mission to apply the simulation platform. Finally, a validation process and evaluation tests have been performed to evaluate the SIM platform and lunar orbit rendezvous mission models. The simulation platform and models will lay the foundation for the more validations of autonomy technology in manned lunar landing research.

Paper Nr: 29
Title:

Fault Detection by Backwards Analysis in Coloured Workflow Nets

Authors:

Vasilii Ganishev, Olga Fengler and Wolfgang Fengler

Abstract: The increasing complexity of the business processes requires automated methods for trouble-shooting and debugging of the process model in operation. This paper proposes mechanism of fault detection based on the concept of backwards reachability for the coloured workflow nets. The formal verification methods defined for coloured Petri nets such as state space method or place invariants declaration suffer from fast-growing computational complexity. The article offers the set of firing rules for backwards token-play on coloured workflow net. This method helps to detect resource-related failures of the two most common types: ”the missing arc” fault (the resource was not initialized) and ”wrong expression fault” (there is no proper resource).

Paper Nr: 69
Title:

Densifying the Sparse Cloud SimSaaS: The need of a Synergy among Agent-directed Simulation, SimSaaS and HLA

Authors:

Tiago Azevedo, Rosaldo J. F. Rossetti and Jorge G. Barbosa

Abstract: Modelling & Simulation (M&S) is broadly used in real scenarios where making physical modifications could be highly expensive. With the so-called Simulation Software-as-a-Service (SimSaaS), researchers could take advantage of the huge amount of resource that cloud computing provides. Even so, studying and analysing a problem through simulation may need several simulation tools, hence raising interoperability issues. Having this in mind, IEEE developed a standard for interoperability among simulators named High Level Architecture (HLA). Moreover, the multi-agent system approach has become recognised as a convenient approach for modelling and simulating complex systems. Despite all the recent works and acceptance of these technologies, there is still a great lack of work regarding synergies among them. This paper shows by means of a literature review this lack of work or, in other words, the sparse Cloud SimSaaS. The literature review and the resulting taxonomy are the main contributions of this paper, as they provide a research agenda illustrating future research opportunities and trends.

Paper Nr: 72
Title:

Parametric Study of Liquid Flow in Five- and Six-stage Centrifugal Pumps

Authors:

Lahbib Kerbouci and Guyh Dituba Ngoma

Abstract: Two models of a multistage centrifugal pump using a five- and six-stage centrifugal pumps were developed and numerically investigated. The continuity and Navier-Stokes equations with the k-ɛ turbulence model and standard wall functions were used by means of the ANSYS-CFX code. To enhance the design of the multistage pump, the concept consisting of varying three parameters at a time was used. Thus, the combined effects of the impeller blade angle, the impeller blade number and the impeller blade width on the performance of the five- and six-stage centrifugal pumps was analyzed. The results obtained reveal, among other things, that the highest pump efficiency was reached for the outlet impeller blade angle of 25.38°, the number of impeller blades of 7, and the impeller blade width of 7 mm.

Paper Nr: 78
Title:

Simulations and Optimization of Manufacturing of Automotive Parts

Authors:

Lukasz Rauch, Monika Pernach, Jan Kusiak and Maciej Pietrzyk

Abstract: Fast progress in modeling of metal processing encourage researchers to look for better technologies, which can be done through optimization of their design. Authors have developed the computer system ManuOpti for optimization of manufacturing chains based on materials processing. Application of this system to simulations and optimization of manufacturing of automotive parts was the general objective of the paper. ManuOpti software enables performing optimization by the user with little experience in the computer science and in the optimization methods. On the other hand, the application of the optimization techniques is efficient only when reliable material models and accurate numerical methods are applied. Therefore, validation of models describing microstructure evolution in automotive steel (Dual Phase – DP) was the next objective of the paper. Physical simulations of thermal cycles were performed and the experimental results were used to validate the model. Numerical tests with the ManuOpti system recapitulate the paper. Case studies for the tests included various thermal cycles of the continuous annealing of DP steels.

Paper Nr: 84
Title:

Development of Computerized Severe Accident Management Guidelines of AP1000 Nuclear Power Plant

Authors:

Gang Chen, Shuang Xiao, Haidan Wang, Yiqiang Xiong and Yixue Chen

Abstract: Nuclear Power is considered to be one of the solutions to fulfil the increasing need of clean energy in China. Making use of this clean energy can help reduce the consumption of fossil energy, which could enhance the surrounding areas by preventing the environment from harmful air pollution. However, the consequence of severe accident of nuclear power is unbearable, such as Chernobyl and Fukushima Accidents. So as to improve the safety of nuclear power, the severe accident shall be managed in case to reduce the negative impacts to the environment and people health. This paper introduces the Severe Accident Management and Emergency Response System (SAMERS), which aims to help the operators and technicians deal with the severe accidents. Especially, the development of Computerized Severe Accident Management Guidelines (CSAMG) is described in detail, which is a module of SAMERS. CSAMG is based on the AP1000 severe accident management guidelines, which could enhance the operator performance during severe accident.

Paper Nr: 93
Title:

Modeling and Simulation of Logic Gates using DEVS

Authors:

Maamar Hamri and Nesrine Driouche

Abstract: Discrete event simulation becomes popular more and more and was applied successfully in many fields: medicine, robotics, etc. One of this field is digital circuits for which boolean logics is the basis of computation by designing logic gates. However such a paradigm does not consider the time basis. Consequently, the boolean logic paradigm can not design and simulate delays of circuits and stamped explicitly computations. In this paper, we propose to combine the boolean logic paradigm and Discrete EVent system Specification (DEVS) formalism for modeling and simulation logic gates. Using this approach, we are able to design complex network of logic gates by reusing and coupling basic ones and to analyze behavior through time.

Paper Nr: 101
Title:

Application of 3D Navier-Stokes Equations and Mathematical Optimization Techniques to Improve the Efficiency of Seven-Stage Axial Compressor

Authors:

Oleg V. Baturin, Grigorii M. Popov, Evgeny S. Goryachkin and Yilia D. Novikova

Abstract: The paper presents the results of an optimization of the high-pressure compressor of the engine NK-36ST using the mathematical optimization techniques. The article describes in detail the search algorithm of the optimal form of the compressor blades using the software package Numeca and software package IOSO. The description of the used numerical model is given, its verification was carried out. It is shown that only by correcting the stagger angles of the blade rows the efficiency of the considered compressor can be increased by 1.5% at the current position of the working point on the characteristic of the compressor. Also the search possibility of compromise solution that provides a simultaneous increase in the efficiency of the compressor in two modes is shown.

Area 2 - Formal Methods

Full Papers
Paper Nr: 19
Title:

Downscaling Daily Temperature with Evolutionary Artificial Neural Networks

Authors:

Min Shi

Abstract: The spatial resolution of climate data generated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually too coarse to present regional or local features and dynamics. State of the art research with Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the downscaling of GCMs mainly uses back-propagation algorithm as a training approach. This paper applies another training approach of ANNs, Evolutionary Algorithm. The combined algorithm names neuroevolutionary (NE) algorithm. We investigate and evaluate the use of the NE algorithms in statistical downscaling by generating temperature estimates at interior points given information from a lattice of surrounding locations. The results of our experiments indicate that NE algorithms can be efficient alternative downscaling methods for daily temperatures.

Paper Nr: 26
Title:

Bayesian Sample Size Optimization Method for Integrated Test Design of Missile Hit Accuracy

Authors:

Guangling Dong, Chi He, Zhenguo Dai, Yanchang Huang and Xiaochu Hang

Abstract: Sample size determination (SSD) for integrated test of missile hit accuracy is addressed in this paper. Bayesian approach to SSD gives test designer the possibility of taking into account of prior information and uncertainty on unknown parameters of interest. This fact offers the advantage of removing or mitigating typical drawbacks of classical methods, which might lead to serious miscalculation of the sample size. However, standard power prior based Bayesian SSD method cannot cope with integrated SSD for both simulation test and field test, as large numbers of simulation samples would cause contradiction between design prior and average posterior variance criterion (APVC). In allusion to this problem, we propose a test design effect equivalent method for equivalent sample size (ESS) calculation, which combined simulation credibility, sample size, and power prior exponent to get a rational design prior for subsequent field test. Average posterior variance (APV) of interested parameters is deduced by simulation credibility, sample sizes of two kinds of test, and prior distribution parameters. Thus, we get optimal design equations of integrated test scheme under both test cost constraints and required posterior precision constraint, whose effectiveness are illustrated with two examples.

Short Papers
Paper Nr: 57
Title:

Reduction and Push Technology of Cable Harness Information for Complex Mechatronic Products based on Variable Precision Rough Sets

Authors:

Falin Wang, Wenhe Liao, Yu Guo and Xiaofei Wang

Abstract: As energy and signal transmission medium, cable harness is widely used in complex mechatronic products, and cable harness information are the basis and premise conditions of the flexible cable harness assembly simulation of complex mechatronic products system. To retrieve cable harness information from the information management system or repository effectively, a push method of cable harness information for complex mechatronic products based on variable precision rough sets (VPRS) was proposed in this paper. By using the cable harness information reduction method, the cable harness information repository is simplified, and rules which can support the precise push also be distilled from the reduct cable harness information repository. On the basis of the above approach, cable harness wiring designers, assembly process planners and assembly process simulation designers can efficiently share cable harness information during all design processes. Finally, a case is employed to validate the proposed method of this paper.

Paper Nr: 62
Title:

Extreme Learning Machines with Simple Cascades

Authors:

Tom Gedeon and Anthony Oakden

Abstract: We compare extreme learning machines with cascade correlation on a standard benchmark dataset for comparing cascade networks along with another commonly used dataset. We introduce a number of hybrid cascade extreme learning machine topologies ranging from simple shallow cascade ELM networks to full cascade ELM networks. We found that the simplest cascade topology provided surprising benefit with a cascade correlation style cascade for small extreme learning machine layers. Our full cascade ELM architecture achieved high performance with even a single neuron per ELM cascade, suggesting that our approach may have general utility, though further work needs to be done using more datasets. We suggest extensions of our cascade ELM approach, with the use of network analysis, addition of noise, and unfreezing of weights.

Paper Nr: 71
Title:

Ontology based Modelling of Operator Training Simulator Scenarios from Human Error Reports

Authors:

Flávio Torres Filho, Yuska Paola Costa Aguiar and Maria de Fátima Queiroz Vieira

Abstract: In industrial systems’ simulated environments the assimilation of technical procedures by the operators under training is enhanced by reproducing similar to real situations experienced in the workplace. The experience and learning acquired in simulators is directly related to the quality and realism of the proposed training scenarios. On the other hand, the experience acquired is even more conducive to good working practices when it involves situations known to lead into errors. Often training scenarios are dependent on the tutor’s experience and the knowledge of operator difficulties in the work environment. This paper proposes a systematic approach for building training scenarios to be simulated, based on the analysis and reproduction of situations described in the working environment error reports. This approach is based on the instantiation of ontologies built for both domains, covering the knowledge on both the error situations and operator training scenarios. This study is focused in the domain of electric power systems operation.

Paper Nr: 73
Title:

Optimization of Parallel-DEVS Simulations with Partitioning Techniques

Authors:

Christopher Herbez, Eric Ramat and Gauthier Quesnel

Abstract: With the emergence of parallel computational infrastructures at low cost, reducing simulation time becomes again an issue of the research community in modeling and simulation. This paper presents an approach to improve time of discrete event simulations. For that, the Parallel Discrete EVent System formalism is coupled to a partitioning method in order to parallelize the graph of models. We will present the graph partitioning method to realize this cutting and quantify the resulting time savings of parallel implementation. This article highlights the importance of considering the dynamic of the model when partitioning to improve performances. Many tests are performed from graphs with different sizes and shapes on several hardware architectures.

Paper Nr: 80
Title:

A Review on Discrete-event Simulation and System Dynamics Studies for Healthcare Problems

Authors:

Eylül Damla Gönül-Sezer and Zeynep Ocak

Abstract: Modeling is the major necessity to enhance the existing systems. Healthcare systems also need to model for advancing delivered services without compromising any other objectives. Thus, simulation techniques are frequently preferred in healthcare problems. As was to be expected, simulation has various applications which yields result in different perspectives. This study discusses two popular simulation techniques; discrete event simulation and system dynamics techniques in healthcare system applications. The applications are examined under four main branches based on their scopes. As a result, this paper evaluates which of these simulation techniques is more practical for different natured healthcare problems.

Posters
Paper Nr: 14
Title:

Synchronization of the Complex Dynamical Networks with a Gui Chaotic Strange Attractor

Authors:

Zhanji Gui and Lan Kang

Abstract: In this paper, impulsive neural networks with a Gui chaotic strange attractor is studied. By employing the Lyapunov-like stability theory of impulsive functional differential equations, some criteria for synchronization of impulsive neural networks are derived. An illustrative example is provided to show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method and results.

Area 3 - Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation

Full Papers
Paper Nr: 2
Title:

Awareness-based Couplings of Intelligent Agents and Other Advanced Coupling Concepts for M&S

Authors:

Tuncer Ören and Levent Yilmaz

Abstract: This study is a sequel of a recent publication where the coupling concepts as well as the advantages of coupling of declarative models were clarified. In this article, the basic concepts of simulation model coupling is reviewed. Advanced input concepts, including context-mediated perception, are elucidated. Synergy of agents and simulation is revised. Awareness-based couplings of intelligent agents are explained. Other advanced coupling concepts clarified include: deliberation-based coupling, introspection-based coupling, anticipation-based coupling, and model/real-system coupling.

Paper Nr: 94
Title:

High Precision Temperature Control of Normal-conducting RF GUN for a High Duty Cycle Free-Electron Laser

Authors:

Kai Kruppa, Sven Pfeiffer, Gerwald Lichtenberg, Frank Brinker, Winfried Decking, Klaus Flöttmann, Olaf Krebs, Holger Schlarb and Siegfried Schreiber

Abstract: High precision temperature control of the RF GUN is necessary to optimally accelerate thousands of electrons within the injection part of the European X-ray free-electron laser XFEL and the Free Electron Laser FLASH. A difference of the RF GUN temperature from the reference value of only 0.01 K leads to detuning of the cavity and thus limits the performance of the whole facility. Especially in steady-state operation there are some undesired temperature oscillations when using classical standard control techniques like PID control. That is why a model based approach is applied here to design the RF GUN temperature controller for the free-electron lasers. A thermal model of the RF GUN and the cooling facility is derived based on heat balances, considering the heat dissipation of the Low-Level RF power. This results in a nonlinear model of the plant. The parameters are identified by fitting the model to data of temperature, pressure and control signal measurements of the FLASH facility, a pilot test facility for the European XFEL. The derived model is used for controller design. A linear model predictive controller was implemented in MATLAB/Simulink and tuned to stabilize the temperature of the RF GUN in steady-state operation. A test of the controller in simulation shows promising results.

Paper Nr: 98
Title:

Mathematical Modeling for Ship Evacuation from Tsunami Attack

Authors:

Ei-ichi Kobayashi, Shota Yoneda, Masako Murayama, Yuuki Taniguchi, Hirotada Hashimoto and Shunichi Koshimura

Abstract: When a tsunami warning is officially announced, as a measure for safeguarding ships from tsunami attacks, it is recommended that large ships in harbors be maneuvered to sheltered areas outside the ports until the tsunami subsides. In this paper, we develop mathematical simulation models to describe the dynamic behavior of a ship. Then, the evacuation maneuvers of a cruise ship and a cargo ship in a tsunami flow are analyzed and characterized. Finally, it is concluded that this kind of simulation could be very great help useful to evaluate the safety of ship evacuation methods against for the tsunami attacks.

Short Papers
Paper Nr: 13
Title:

Modeling and Simulation of Coalition Formation

Authors:

V. Mashkov, J. Barilla, P. Simr and J. Bicanek

Abstract: One of the challenges of agent technologies is to provide models of team or group activities in which agents contact each other, negotiate and collaborate towards certain objectives. Such groups are related to multi-agent systems. In context of multi-agent systems, separate agents can cooperate and join together in order to execute the faced tasks in a more efficient way or in order to gain benefits. The paper deals with unselfish agents which are concerned about the system’s global outcome, without regards for personal payoff. Coalition formation is a very complex process which requires correct planning and preliminary modeling to be solved effectively. In the paper, we considered the problem of modeling the coalition formation from unselfish agents. There are several tools that allow providing and carrying out coalition formation modeling. In the paper, we showed how the Petri Nets can be used for such modeling. For the purpose of simulation of coalition formation the open access web application was developed.

Paper Nr: 20
Title:

Multi-granularity Modeling of Variable Structured Rocket based on Declarative Language

Authors:

Wanmeng Zhou, Hua Wang, Fuyu Sun and Haiyang Li

Abstract: The development of the rocket design process depends heavily on the effective and accurate modeling method. This paper elaborates the procedure to establish the variable structured rocket simulation package with the declarative modeling language Modelica. The package includes the rocket library with basic rocket components and rocket products with subsystems and segments. Some of the components like body and measurement take full advantages of the Modelica object-oriented characters, while others like control system and aerodynamics are assembled on the basis of traditional flight dynamics. The multi-granularity library for variable-structured rocket is verified with a case study. The results indicate that the library is successfully applied to the rocket modeling for flight control system design and is capable of rocket design in different phases.

Paper Nr: 21
Title:

An Agent-based System for Issuing Stock Trading Signals

Authors:

Zheyuan Su and Mirsad Hadzikadic

Abstract: Simulation-based models are becoming a promising research tool in financial markets. A general Complex Adaptive System can be tailored to different application scenarios. This paper describes an application of a Complex Adaptive System-based agent model in stock trades signalling. The model has been evaluated using historical movement of Bank of America stock. Agents in the system are initialized using random decision rules. Genetic algorithms and machine learning methods are utilized to reduce the sample space and improve the decision rules. Final rules are generated via Monte Carlo simulation and modified with a market momentum estimate. By following the advice suggested by the model. The hypothetical investors have outperformed the S&P 500 index and buy-and-hold investors. Compared with benchmark agents with buy-and-hold strategy on stock and index respectively, the model achieved higher return even in periods of stock’s poor performance. The stock trade-signalling model is implemented using the Netlogo framework.

Paper Nr: 30
Title:

Interaction Model between Direct and Autonomous Learnings in Closed and Open Innovation Condition

Authors:

JinHyo Joseph Yun, Doo Seok Lee, HeungJu Ahn, Kyungbae Park and JeongHo Yang

Abstract: This paper builds up the interaction model between direct and autonomous learning (IMBDAL) from the human cognitive process in closed and open innovation condition. When autonomous learning happens, the units of knowledge determinations that arise indirect learning are separated. They do not only induce broad autonomous learning made through the horizontal combinations that surpass the combinations that occurred in direct learning but also in-depth autonomous learning made through vertical combinations that appear so that new knowledge is added. This knowledge made by autonomous learning becomes confirmed information through interactions with environments, that is, open innovation and undergoes the process of direct learning to become proven knowledge. It is then converted into confirmed knowledge, which becomes the material of autonomous learning. This process is repeated. The cores of IMBDAL are the variability of the boundary between proven knowledge and hypothetical knowledge, limitations in knowledge accumulation, and complementarity and conflicts between direct and autonomous learning. Therefore, these should be considered when introducing IMBDAL into navigations, cleaning robots, and search engines, among others. In addition, we should put into consideration the relation between direct learning and autonomous learning when building up open innovation strategies and policies.

Paper Nr: 42
Title:

Artificial Financial Market - Risk Analysis Approach

Authors:

Badiâa Hedjazi, Samir Aknine and Karima Benatchba

Abstract: Financial market is in constant confrontation with various financial risks. These contribute to market instabilities, financial crises and substantial losses for investors. To effectively manage these risks, we should understand the complexity of the market due to its evolution in an uncertain environment. This is possible through multi-agent modeling and simulation while taking into consideration risk indicators. We, propose, in this paper, to model a financial market simulation system using a multi-agent model, where agents represent the different market participants. The reasoning model of our agents is based on different risk indicators. We use the classifier systems as reasoning and learning model for the cognitive agents of our system. This system is a decision tool dedicated to managers or experts wanting to analyze and understand through the behaviour of the different participants, the evolution of the global dynamics of the market and the influence of the different risk factors on the market and on the various categories of market participants.

Paper Nr: 70
Title:

LLUNPIY Preliminary Extension for Simulating Primary Lahars - Application to the 1877 Cataclysmic Event of Cotopaxi Volcano

Authors:

Guillermo Machado, Valeria Lupiano, Gino Mirocle Crisci and Salvatore Di Gregorio

Abstract: Cotopaxi volcano is one of the most studied and surveyed volcanos in the world because the repetition of the 1877 catastrophic lahar invasion, is not implausible, threatening now more than 100,000 persons. A reliable forecasting tool is very important for projecting security measures. LLUNPIY is a Cellular Automata model for simulating lahars in terms of complex system evolving on the base of local interaction. Here, LLUNPIY extension is applied to Cotopaxi event of 1877 primary lahars, after the successful simulation of some secondary lahars of Tungurahua volcano. Such an extension permitted simulations with different initial hypotheses: our preliminary simulations agree in outline with field studies about the evolution of event, moreover LLUNPIY permits a broader approach to overall phenomenon in comparison with other tools.

Paper Nr: 92
Title:

Tsunami and Storm Surge Simulation Using Low Power Architectures - Concept and Evaluation

Authors:

Dominik Schoenwetter, Alexander Ditter, Bruno Kleinert, Arne Hendricks, Vadym Aizinger, Harald Koestler and Dietmar Fey

Abstract: Performing a tsunami or storm surge simulation in real time is a highly challenging research topic that calls for a collaboration between mathematicians and computer scientists. One must combine mathematical models with numerical methods and rely on computational performance and code parallelization to produce accurate simulation results as fast as possible. The traditional modeling approaches require a lot of computing power and significant amounts of electrical energy; they are also highly dependent on uninterrupted access to a reliable power supply. This paper presents a concept how to develop suitable low power hardware architectures for tsunami and storm surge simulations based on cooperative software and hardware simulation. The main goal is to be able - if necessary - to perform simulations in-situ and battery-powered. For flood warning systems installed in regions with weak or unreliable power and computing infrastructure, this would significantly decrease the risk of failure at the most critical moments.

Posters
Paper Nr: 16
Title:

Numerical Analysis on Water Hammer Characteristics of Rocket Propellant Filling Pipeline

Authors:

Xiang Youhuan, Zhang Ping, Zhang Hui and Bai Fengtian

Abstract: In order to investigate the water hammer problem of the filling pipeline during the rocket propellant filling process of the spaceflight launch site, the simulation calculation model and the real experimental system is established. It researches the water hammer characteristics of the filling pipeline, and analyses the law of pressure change when water hammer occurs. The improved schemes are proposed in this paper, and the simulation calculation and real experiment are carried through for the proposed schemes. It also carries through data analysis for the simulation and experimental results. The results show that the proposed scheme can effectively reduce the water hammer effect of the pipeline during the filling process, improve the rocket propellant filling accuracy and enhance the security and reliability of the system.

Paper Nr: 102
Title:

Angular Arrangement Optimization of the Support Racks of Gas Turbine Engine to Reduce the Circumferential Unevenness of Gas Flow

Authors:

Grigorii M. Popov, Daria Kolmakova and Aleksandr O. Shklovets

Abstract: This work is motivated by the necessity to reduce the effects of the flow circumferential distortion in the flow passage of the aircraft gas turbine engine (GTE). During the presented research, another principal of reduction of the flow circumferential distortion was chosen. Firstly, the variants of upgrading the existing support racks were found. Secondly, the new design of support was offered. Both version of the support design variation took into account the availability of technological and structural limitations associated with the location of oil pipes, springs and others elements in the support racks. Investigations of modified design showed that the support with altered racks provides a reduction of dynamic stresses by 20% at resonance with the most dangerous harmonic, and the new design of support can give the decrease of 30%.

Area 4 - Application Domains

Full Papers
Paper Nr: 17
Title:

Conceptual Wiki Page Simulation - A Discrete Space Agent-based Approach

Authors:

Roger W. McHaney and Jonathan Mossberg

Abstract: This paper describes the preliminary development stages of an agent-based model (ABM) used to understand and anticipate changes to Wiki pages. A discrete space approach was used to structure the model. Letters from words in the wiki were represented as agents which could be changed, deleted, or added based on rates derived from wiki page histories. A C# pre-processor, called Wiki-Hist-Heist, was developed to facilitate analysis of existing wiki page histories and provide model inputs based on detected patterns and resulting distributions. The conceptual version of the Wiki Page ABM was built using AnyLogic. It provided a framework for user-friendly features which allow easy changes to inputs so a variety of pages and scenarios can be modelled. Additionally, this project illustrated the usefulness of ABM in this domain. Limitations and future study directions are included.

Paper Nr: 24
Title:

Modeling and Simulation of MAS-based Management System for Smart Grid with Smart Homes

Authors:

Chen Miao, Tai Nengling and Ji Kang

Abstract: Traditional power system is undergoing revolutionary changes. Concepts like Smart Grid and Smart Home have come into practice due to high penetration of distributed generation and advanced information technologies. This paper incorporates Smart Home and Smart Grid. It focuses on a community where houses are equipped with photovoltaic panels, energy storage system and smart appliances. A new management system is proposed based on multi-agent technology. Agents are designed to be intelligence, autonomous and with high plug-and-play capability. System control architecture has three levels corresponding to management of devices, houses and community. A two-level operation optimization scheme is proposed, in which operation optimization problem is decomposed into five constrained multi-objective problems, mutual supply mechanism is deployed to efficiently coordinate Smart Homes and NSGA-II is introduced to obtain Pareto-optimal solutions. Simulation results validate the effectiveness of proposed management system.

Paper Nr: 32
Title:

Enabling Military Coalition Command and Control with Interoperating Simulations

Authors:

J. Mark Pullen

Abstract: This paper reports on progress in developing standardized methods for military coalitions to interoperate command and control (C2) systems and simulations as a system-of-systems, resulting in improved functionality and timeliness for participants. Command and control systems are networked software systems that commanders, staffs, and other participants use to exchange tasking information (called Orders) and status information for situational awareness (called Reports). Simulations are useful as C2 system elements for analysis and to stimulate training and mission rehearsal. C2SIM combines the two and has particular value in a coalition environment, where each nation prefers to use its own C2 system and simulation. The paper describes NATO and SISO activities in C2SIM, the technical approach used to achieve interoperability, and examples of its success.

Paper Nr: 55
Title:

A Model-Driven Engineering Process for Agent-based Traffic Simulations

Authors:

Alberto Fernández-Isabel and Rubén Fuentes-Fernández

Abstract: Traffic has an important impact in many aspects of our everyday life, from healthcare to transport regulation or urban planning. Given its complexity, the study in real settings is frequently limited, so researchers resort to simulations. However, realistic simulations are still complex systems. Its development frequently requires multidisciplinary groups, where misunderstandings are frequent, and there is a great variety of potential theories and platforms to consider. In order to reduce the impact of these issues, the Model-Driven Engineering (MDE) of simulations has been proposed. It is focused on developing mainly through models and their semi-automated transformation. Nevertheless, an effective approach of this kind requires the availability of infrastructures that include modelling languages, transformations, tools, and processes to use them. This work presents a MDE process for traffic simulations. It introduces a modelling language and makes uses of available infrastructures in its tasks. The process guides users in creating tailored models for their simulations, and transforming these to code. A case study that uses an existing model for drivers’ behaviour and an already available platform to develop a simulation illustrates the approach.

Paper Nr: 104
Title:

A Multi-Objective Simulator for Optimal Power Dimensioning on Electric Railways using Cloud Computing

Authors:

Jesus Carretero, Silvina Caino, Felix Garcia-Carballeira and Alberto Garcia

Abstract: Power dimensioning and energy saving have been traditionally two main issues regarding the deployment of electric grids. Electric railways are also concerned about these issues, and simulators have been traditionally used to test such infrastructure deployments. The main goal of this paper is to present the Railway electric Power Consumption Simulator, a simulation model and tool for the railway energy provisioning problem. This simulator aims to propose electric railway infrastructure deployments, optimizing the quality of the electric flow supplied to train, as well as saving as much energy as possible. The paper describes the simulator structure, as well as the ontology used to translate railway infrastructure elements into an electric circuit. Because these two objectives are conflicting, a multi-objective optimization problem is formulated and solved. Finally, a standard railway scenario is used to illustrate the capabilities of the tool, trying to find the best electric substation placements in order to optimize such objectives. The evaluation shows how the tool can handle hundreds of simulated scenarios using Cloud Computing techniques.

Paper Nr: 105
Title:

An Efficient and Secure Mutual Authentication Mechanism in NEMO-based PMIPv6 Networks: A Methodology and Simulation Analysis

Authors:

Sirine Ben Ameur, Salima Smaoui, Faouzi Zarai, Mohammad S. Obaidat and Balqies Sadoun

Abstract: Currently, Network Mobility (NEMO) Basic Support protocol enables the attachment of mobile networks to different points in the Internet. It permits session continuity for all nodes in the mobile network to be reachable as the network moves. While this standard is based on the MobileIPv6 standard, it inherits these disadvantages such as security vulnerabilities. To manage the problems of NEMO, many schemes combine it with a network-based approach such as Proxy Mobile IPv6 (PMIPv6). Despite the fact that this latter expedites the real deployment of IP mobility management; it suffers from lack of security. Therefore, we propose an Efficient and Secure Mutual Authentication Mechanism during initial attachment in NEMO-based Proxy Mobile IPv6 Networks called EMA-NEMO based PMIPv6 in order to provide mutual authentication between a mobile router and diameter server during initial attachment of the mobile router to a PMIPv6 domain. Moreover, we evaluate the performance of our scheme using the Automated Validation of Internet Security Protocols and Applications (AVISPA) software which has proved that authentication goals are achieved.

Short Papers
Paper Nr: 5
Title:

Topology Optimisation of Rotating Automation Components for Machine Tools – Methodology, Cost Effectiveness and Examples

Authors:

Gerhard Kehl, Paul Jickeli, Martin Schietinger and David Blank

Abstract: Light weight constructions possess a variety of general benefits in application, such as higher energy efficiency, increase of acceleration or payload. But especially the reduction of costs over the entire product life cycle is increasingly in the focus. By application of topology optimisation for rotating automation components a significant improvement is possible. On the other hand any simulation effort has to be judged as an entrepreneurial action for which a return on investment (ROI) has to be ensured. The simulation tasks, results and in conclusion the ROIs for some exemplary optimisations in the field of manufacturing machines are presented and assessed as success stories for the use of simulations in practice.

Paper Nr: 33
Title:

Discrete Event Simulation in a BRT System - Transmilenio Case

Authors:

Miguel R. Campos, Juan P. Álvarez and Ciro A. Amaya

Abstract: Recently, the bus rapid transit (BRT) systems have been implemented around the world as an efficient and low cost mass public transportation alternative. While studying such systems, a common assumption has been that the user knows and uses the fastest route every time. Therefore, this paper has two main objectives. The first objective is to model the interactions within a BRT system station, modelling the decision making process of each user independently with a cost function in which he is able to take a decision depending on different variables such as the average utilization of a bus or the time arrival of the next scheduled bus. The second objective is incorporating the stochastic nature of input data, such as arrival rates, origin-destination matrix or service time into the model. Using this model logic a complete system can be built. Thereby, investigations that mean to improve the performance of the system can be tested considering the stochastic behavior of the users during the route plan decision making process.

Paper Nr: 60
Title:

The Impact of Household Structures on Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Priority

Authors:

Hung-Jui Chang, Jen-Hsiang Chuang, Yang-Chih Fu, Tsan-Sheng Hsu, Chi-Wen Hsueh, Shu-Chen Tsai and Da-Wei Wang

Abstract: The household structure is an important aspect of population based simulation. How to generate a mock population with specific household structure characteristics is thus an important question. The network structure is one of the dominant factors for contact-based disease transmission. And household structure is the most important source of close contact among small groups. We identify the percentage of elderly-children households as an important character and study the process to generate mock population with specified percentage of elderly-children households. The generated mock populations are fed into the agent-based simulation module to study the impact of household structure on vaccination policy.

Paper Nr: 68
Title:

Design of a Perforated Muffler for a Regenerative Blower Used in Fuel Cell Application

Authors:

Hyun Gwon Kil, Kwang Yeong Kim and Chan Lee

Abstract: A perforated muffler has been designed to reduce a high noise level that is generated from a regenerative blower used in fuel cell applications. The noise consists of two components such as discrete high frequency noise component at blade passing frequency (BPF) due to rotating impellers and broadband noise component due to turbulence in inflow and exhaust jet mixing. Main contribution into the high noise level is due to the discrete frequency noise component at high frequency 5800 Hz. In order to effectively reduce the noise level of regenerative blowers, a perforated muffler has been modelled in this paper. In order to identify important design factors, the design parametric study has been performed using transfer matrix method and finite element method (FEM). It has been implemented to design the perforated muffler that effectively reduces the high noise level of the regenerative blower.

Paper Nr: 75
Title:

Analysis of Hump Operation at a Railroad Classification Yard

Authors:

Maria Gisela Bardossy

Abstract: Railroad classification yards play a significant role in freight transportation: shipments are consolidated to benefit from economies of scales. However, the disassembling of inbound trains, the classification of railcars and reassembling of outbound trains add significant time to the overall transportation. Determining the operational schedule of a railroad classification yard to ensure that railcars pass as quickly as possible through the yard to continue with their journey to their final destination is a challenging problem. In this paper, we create a simulation model to mimic the dynamics of a classification yard and investigate the effect of two simple but practical priority rules (train length and arrival time) for the sequencing of inbound trains through the humping operation. We monitor the effect of these rules on performance measures such as average wait time (dwell time) at the yard and daily throughput as the complexity and frequency of the trains vary. We run the simulation on four data sets with low and high complexity of trains and low and high frequency of trains.

Paper Nr: 97
Title:

Towards Improving Modeling and Simulation of Clinical Pathways: Lessons Learned and Future Insights

Authors:

Mahmoud Elbattah and Owen Molloy

Abstract: Clinical pathways (CPs) have been increasingly recognised as an instrumental evidence-based artifact that can support clinical decision making and care planning. However, research focusing on modeling and simulation of CPs is still sparse, despite significant individual endeavours. Initially, the paper conducts a systematic literature review with the aim of thoroughly inspecting the state-of-the-art in literature. Through the review, potential improvements are investigated with regard to the application of modeling and simulation within CPs. In view of that, we identify four thematic areas that emphasise how research in this space can be further developed. Specifically, we propose the following directions: i) Development of a conceptual reference model of CPs, ii) Adoption of a multi-perspective modeling approach that can integrate clinical, operational, financial and demographic information of CPs, iii) Development of a generic semantic-based model of CPs, and iv) Adoption of Linked Data concepts.

Posters
Paper Nr: 11
Title:

Agent Based Modelling Framework for Military Domain Specific Command and Control

Authors:

Woo-Seop Yun and Tae-Eog Lee

Abstract: In the past, command and control (C2) was not a modelling feature but was considered a role that human should take on. Today, however, modelling C2 becomes one of essential features to be modelled in developing wargame models since needs of the C2 modelling are increased in the perspective of 1) analysing the C2 effectiveness through simulation and 2) making wargame models that achieve high fidelity. The first attempt of modelling C2 was to transfer a series of orders in a form of scripts to combat entities which have autonomous behaviour. Now, the attempt has developed to introduce the agent concept into C2 modelling. This study proposes a modelling framework to model C2 using intelligent agent in the military domain at the level of implementation. This article presents the C2 modelling methods by dividing the C2 processes into two phases: planning and execution as the military domain C2 does.

Paper Nr: 27
Title:

Design of Firing Impulse Simulator and Analysis of Its Key Research and Development Technologies

Authors:

Chi He, Guangling Dong, Hongquan Wu, Qiang Li and Kun Lu

Abstract: A key technology problem with respect to approval testing is that of simulating firing impulse in large calibre weapon systems without firing live ammunition with many problems as high cost, strict environmental conditions, large numbers of staffing, wide test field, etc. There are two main methods in use at present: the first method is to carry out numerical simulation of gun firing dynamics with modelling and simulation (M&S) technology; the second method is to conduct hardware-in-the-loop simulation test with firing impulse simulator (FIS). The latter types of methods generate impulse effect to simulate gun live firing from power sources of gunpowder, gas, or liquid. FIS with gunpowder or gas as power source take on problems as low control precision, complicated operating process, and poor safety. In this paper, a FIS which transfer test data via CAN (Control Area Net) bus was designed and developed. System composition and working principle are introduced based on analyzing features of similar products, where key technologies as counter-recoil analysis, mass and speed choice of pounding head, system safety design are studied with emphasis. The research results indicate that FIS can be used as an effective supplementary to live firing in approval test of weapon system.

Paper Nr: 28
Title:

Error Modeling and Simulation for Directional Testing of Space Block

Authors:

Hongquan Wu, Guangling Dong, Chi He, Wei Ma, Jietao Xie, Ruibing Shi and Hongqiang Wei

Abstract: A directional testing model of space block is studied for effective utilization of optical equipment as theodolite, which gives out the influencing range of testing error on the calculated results. Thus, gists for guaranteeing actual measuring accuracy and improving testing efficiency are provided. And, the open question in accurate measurement of space block direction can be solved. In this paper, angular information of two different marker points on space block are used for directional testing, through which a partial derivative based error propagation model is built. The rationality and credibility of this model is verified by Monte Carlo simulation. Besides, its calculation results are validated through conventional variance test method in the end. The validation results indicate the rationality and credibility of the partial derivative based error propagation model. The error propagation model can be used to study measuring error distributions on different areas of space block, which lays a firm foundation for optimizing measuring stations distribution, and guarantees measure precision.

Paper Nr: 31
Title:

Low Noise Design of Regenerative Blower by Combining the FANDAS-Regen Code, Optimization Technique and Phase-Shift Cancellation Concept

Authors:

Chan Lee, Hyun Gwon Kil and Jun Gon Kim

Abstract: Low noise regenerative blower is designed by combining the FANDAS-Regen code and optimization technique. The FANDAS-Regen code used in the present study defines blower design variables on rotating impellers and fixed side channels, and then constructs the 3-D blower design geometry. Based on the designed blower geometry, the FANDAS-Regen code also analyzes the blower performance as well as noise characteristics by using momentum exchange theory coupled with pressure loss and leakage models and by incorporating the performance prediction results into discrete and broadband noise models. With the FANDAS-Regen code as a simulation engine, design optimization is conducted for impeller and side channel design variables to minimize overall sound pressure level of blower under the constraints of aerodynamic design requirements on pressure rise, efficiency and power consumption. Furthermore, for more noise reduction of blower, a staggered impeller blade arrangement as a phase-shift cancellation design concept is also applied to the optimized impeller design. The optimized blower model is manufactured and tested by a chamber-type performance tester and narrow-band noise measurement apparatus. The performance measurement results agree well with the FANDAS-Regen prediction, and the noise measurement results show a remarkable noise reduction of 26 dBA through the present design optimization.

Paper Nr: 77
Title:

Modeling Wine Preferences from Physicochemical Properties using Fuzzy Techniques

Authors:

Àngela Nebot, Francisco Mugica and Antoni Escobet

Abstract: Wine classification is a difficult task since taste is the least understood of the human senses. In this research we propose to use hybrid fuzzy logic techniques to predict human wine test preferences based on physicochemical properties from wine analyses. Data obtained from Portuguese white wines are used in this study. The fuzzy inductive reasoning technique achieved promising results, outperforming not only the other fuzzy approaches studied but also other data mining techniques previously applied to the same dataset, such are neural networks, support vector machines and multiple regression. Modeling wine preferences may be useful not only for marketing purposes but also to improve wine production or support the oenologist wine tasting evaluations.